1 Game Profile

1.1 Estimated Outcomes on BGG

This table displays the selected game’s current values on four BGG outcomes (UsersRated, Average, GeekRating, Weight) along with my predictive model(s) estimated values for where these games are likely to end up.

Published	ID	Name	Type	UserRatings	Average	GeekRating	Weight
2022	275215	Namiji	Current	259	7.04	5.69	1.70
			Estimated	1,800	7.54	6.52	1.88

To see more information about the game on boardgamegeek, click on the game’s ID or Name to go straight to the game’s profile page.

1.2 Game Description

Description
In Namiji, you are fishers from the Japan of yesteryear, navigating south of the Japanese archipelago, a few kilometers from the famous Tokaido road. You will need to have a fruitful day at sea to win the game. To do this, you will have the opportunity to contemplate magnificent marine species, to fish with a line or a net to fill your racks with colorful fish, and haul in your crustacean traps. You can benefit from stops to improve your fishing equipment, and you will also have to contend with the gods of the sea by setting offerings afloat, or by fulfilling their wishes that they express during your contemplation with the Sacred Rocks, for which they will reward you. Namiji features gameplay similar to Tokaido. The action spaces are laid out on the game board in a linear track, with players advancing down this track to take actions. The player who is currently last on the track takes a turn by advancing forward on the track to their desired action and taking that action, so players must choose whether to advance slowly in order to get more turns, or to travel more rapidly to beat other players to their desired action spaces. What players are doing on the track differs from what they do in Tokaido.

1.3 Game Information

Information on the game’s designers, artists, families, mechanics and categories from BGG.

For the full profile of the selected game, click on the links in the table or go to https://boardgamegeek.com/boardgame/275215

1.4 Explaining Predictions

For each of the predictions above, I used models that were trained on historical boardgamegeek data in order to predict the selected game. How did the model(s) arrive at their predictions? The following plot displays Shapley values to indicate what features were most influential for the model’s predictions. Anything in blue increased the model’s predictions, anything in red decreased the model’s predictions.

2 Finding Similar Games

What games are similar to Namiji? I compare the selected game to every other game on boardgamegeek based on its mechanics, playing time, complexity, and game type. The tables below display the games which had the most similar data to Namiji. The reported similarity is the cosine similarity between the selected game and all other games published before 2021.

This similarity score ranges from -1 to 1, where similarity of 1 indicates that games are exactly identical (a game will have a score of 1 with itself).

Note: This analysis does not look at a game’s ratings on BGG, publisher, artist, or designer - it focuses on finding similar games based on how they play, not how they are rated or by their theme.

2.1 Most Similar Games

The table below displays games with the most similar data to Namiji. Click on a game’s ID or Name to go straight to its profile on boardgamegeek.

Rank	Published	ID	Name	Similarity	GeekRating	Average	Weight	UserRatings
--	2022	275215	Namiji	1.00	5.69	7.04	1.88	259
1	2008	34585	Keltis	0.90	6.19	6.42	1.65	6,016
2	2011	95705	Urknall: The Big Bang	0.89	5.48	4.73	2.00	48
3	2016	191070	Dream Islands	0.89	5.59	6.42	1.67	200
4	2017	200454	Planetarium	0.88	6.08	7.02	2.07	1,178
5	1987	2186	Dino	0.88	5.49	5.28	1.29	67
6	2012	118610	Santa Cruz	0.87	5.98	6.66	2.20	1,246
7	2018	247360	Junk Orbit	0.87	5.83	6.97	1.45	529
8	2012	126076	Sheepdogs of Pendleton Hill	0.86	5.54	6.02	1.89	168
9	1981	9947	The Smurf Game	0.85	5.48	4.64	1.33	36
10	2015	217095	Magyar népmesék: A társasjáték	0.85	5.52	6.53	2.43	45
11	2017	230251	Mint Delivery	0.85	5.86	6.21	1.53	2,038
12	2019	220234	Time Breaker	0.83	5.53	6.84	2.00	45
13	2016	203401	Luther: Das Spiel	0.83	5.50	5.60	1.67	54
14	2019	280147	Ulanga	0.83	5.49	5.21	1.00	30
15	2017	239116	Passaportas	0.82	5.50	5.72	1.50	56
16	2004	9021	Sunken City	0.82	5.70	6.15	1.99	862
17	1935	6787	Deutschlandreise	0.82	5.38	4.48	1.19	224
18	1954	7657	Astron	0.82	5.53	6.67	1.00	48
19	2015	183643	Jeju Island	0.81	5.62	6.49	1.17	250
20	1978	1650	The Lord of the Rings Adventure Game	0.80	5.52	6.18	1.90	72
21	2005	19301	Mesopotamia	0.80	5.97	6.50	2.44	1,584
22	1978	6119	Laser Attack	0.80	5.51	5.95	1.17	73
23	1993	8970	Herd Your Horses!	0.80	5.48	5.36	1.14	105
24	2014	142084	Kings of Israel	0.79	5.85	7.28	2.36	460
25	1975	6764	The Six Million Dollar Man	0.79	5.43	4.41	1.50	109

Click on the ID or Name for any game to go its profile page on boardgamegeek.

2.2 Most Similar, Highly Rated Games

What games are similar to Namiji while also being highly rated by the boardgamegeek community? In this table I multiply every neighboring game’s similarity score by its GeekRating. The resulting score is an attempt to balance these two quantities.

Rank	Published	ID	Name	Score	Similarity	GeekRating	Average	Weight	UserRatings
--	2022	275215	Namiji	5.69	1.00	5.69	7.04	1.88	259
1	2008	30549	Pandemic	5.64	0.75	7.48	7.58	2.41	111,644
2	2008	34585	Keltis	5.60	0.90	6.19	6.42	1.65	6,016
3	2017	200454	Planetarium	5.38	0.88	6.08	7.02	2.07	1,178
4	2012	118610	Santa Cruz	5.21	0.87	5.98	6.66	2.20	1,246
5	2016	192153	Pandemic: Reign of Cthulhu	5.17	0.74	7.01	7.40	2.17	8,929
6	2018	247360	Junk Orbit	5.07	0.87	5.83	6.97	1.45	529
7	2016	191070	Dream Islands	4.98	0.89	5.59	6.42	1.67	200
8	2017	230251	Mint Delivery	4.96	0.85	5.86	6.21	1.53	2,038
9	2019	283619	Century: Golem Edition – Eastern Mountains	4.93	0.79	6.23	7.43	2.35	1,078
10	2011	95705	Urknall: The Big Bang	4.88	0.89	5.48	4.73	2.00	48
11	1987	2186	Dino	4.81	0.88	5.49	5.28	1.29	67
12	2005	19301	Mesopotamia	4.78	0.80	5.97	6.50	2.44	1,584
13	2012	126076	Sheepdogs of Pendleton Hill	4.75	0.86	5.54	6.02	1.89	168
14	2016	192638	Multiuniversum	4.70	0.79	5.97	6.57	1.94	1,423
15	2004	9021	Sunken City	4.69	0.82	5.70	6.15	1.99	862
16	2015	217095	Magyar népmesék: A társasjáték	4.68	0.85	5.52	6.53	2.43	45
17	1981	9947	The Smurf Game	4.65	0.85	5.48	4.64	1.33	36
18	2014	142084	Kings of Israel	4.65	0.79	5.85	7.28	2.36	460
19	2007	30367	Perry Rhodan: The Cosmic League	4.63	0.76	6.11	6.75	1.96	1,649
20	2019	220234	Time Breaker	4.59	0.83	5.53	6.84	2.00	45
21	2015	183643	Jeju Island	4.58	0.81	5.62	6.49	1.17	250
22	2012	118000	Africana	4.56	0.76	6.02	6.71	2.02	1,330
23	2016	203401	Luther: Das Spiel	4.56	0.83	5.50	5.60	1.67	54
24	2019	280147	Ulanga	4.54	0.83	5.49	5.21	1.00	30
25	2017	239116	Passaportas	4.53	0.82	5.50	5.72	1.50	56

2.3 Why Are Games Considered Similar?

I first ran a dimension reduction method (PCA) to identify the main points of variation for games on BGG. The first 25 components explained roughly 50% of the overall variation in the dataset, so I computed the cosine similarity between every game’s score on these 25 components.

2.3.1 Plotting All Games

The following plot shows every game on BGG plotted on the first two principal components of variation. I then highlight where the selected game and its nearest neighbors fall on these first two components.

2.3.2 Game Profiles

Similarity scores are based on 25 principal components - the next table displays the selected game and its neighbors profiles on each of these components.

2.3.3 Examining Components

What are these components? The following plot shows which features contribute the most to each component.

Published	ID	Name	Publisher(s)	Designer(s)	Artist(s)	Categories	Families	Mechanics
2022	275215	Namiji	Funforge	Antoine Bauza	Xavier Gueniffey Durin	Travel	Sports: Fishing / Angling	Point to Point Movement
							Country: Japan	Set Collection
							Crowdfunding: Kickstarter	Time Track
								Variable Player Powers

Individual Game Analysis